期刊
INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION
卷 9, 期 5, 页码 800-805出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2009.04.009
关键词
Influenza A; Water-borne transmission; Mathematical modeling
资金
- EU [GOCE-2003-010284]
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR)
Transmission and persistence of avian influenza viruses (AIV) among wildlife remains an unresolved issue because it depends both on the ecology of the host (e.g. population density, migration) and on the environment (e.g. AIV persistence in water). We have developed a mathematical model that accounts for both AIV epidemics and bird community dynamics. The model is parameterized using bird counts and AN prevalence data. Results suggest that the transmission patterns driving the dynamics of infection at our study site (Camargue, South of France) involved both a density-dependent and a water-borne transmission processes. Water-borne transmission is, however, the main determinant of the disease dynamics and observed prevalence level. This pattern of transmission highlights the importance of the persistence of viral particles in water in AN dynamics in wild birds. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.
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