期刊
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS
卷 28, 期 3, 页码 3114-3125出版社
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2249596
关键词
Cumulative distribution function (CDF); economic dispatch (ED); forecast; forecast span (FS); probability density function (PDF); sequential linear programming (SLP); versatile distribution; wind power
资金
- National High-Technology Research and Development Program (863 Program) of China [2011AA05A103]
The existence of wind power forecast errors is one of the most challenging issues for wind power system operation. It is difficult to find a reasonable method for the representation of forecast errors and apply it in scheduling. In this paper, a probability distribution model named versatile distribution is formulated and developed along with its properties and applications. The model can well represent forecast errors for all forecast timescales and magnitudes. The incorporation of the model in economic dispatch (ED) problems can simplify the wind-induced uncertainties via a few analytical terms in the problem formulation. The ED problem with wind power could hence be solved by the classical optimization methods, such as sequential linear programming which has been widely accepted by industry for solving ED problems. Discussions are also extended on the incorporation of the proposed versatile distribution into unit commitment problems. The results show that the new distribution is more effective than other commonly used distributions (i.e., Gaussian and Beta) with more accurate representation of forecast errors and better formulation and solution of ED problems.
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