期刊
ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE
卷 69, 期 4, 页码 670-681出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fss015
关键词
ecosystem indicator; Marine Strategy Framework Directive; responsiveness; sensitivity; size-based metric; specificity; stock size structure; time-series analysis
A sustainable ecosystem-based management, as postulated by the European Union-Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), requires a sound understanding of the cause-effect relationships between human pressures and ecosystem states. In this study, cross-correlations are used to introduce a protocol for the analysis of time-lagged relationships between pressure and state indicators. To perform meaningful cross-correlations, the time-series of the pressure and the state indicator should be prewhitened by fitting autoregressive integrated moving average models to the pressure indicator time-series. This study provides some theoretical examples on the implications of non-prewhitened and prewhitened cross-correlations and exemplifies the use of prewhitened cross-correlations to compare the pressure-state relationship of a well-established indicator suite vs. the relationship of a new indicator proposed under the MSFD. The established indicator suite is fishing mortality (F) vs. spawning-stock biomass (SSB), the new indicator suite is F vs. the 95% percentile of the length frequency distribution (L95). The L95 aims to characterize the proportion of large individuals within a population. The prewhitened cross-correlations for F and SSB are significant for all four analysed species (cod, haddock, saithe, and plaice), the L95 is correlated with F for cod, haddock, and saithe. However, the L95 was also influenced by the annual survey catch and recruitment.
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