Temperature change and Baltic sprat: from observations to ecological-economic modelling

Temperature effects on Baltic sprat are many and include both direct and indirect effects. Increasing temperature is thought to increase the survival of all early life stages, resulting in increased recruitment success. We quantified the spatially resolved temperature trend for major spawning grounds and depth layers being most relevant for sprat eggs and larvae, using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for 1979-2005. Results confirmed an underlying positive temperature trend. Next, we tested these time-series as new explanatory variables in an existing temperature-dependent recruitment function and applied these recruitment predictions in an age-structured ecological economic optimization model, maximizing for profit. Economic optimal solutions depended upon variability in temperature trajectories. Under climate-change scenarios, mean optimal fishing mortality and related yields and profits increased. The extent of the increase was limited by the general shape of the stock recruitment model and the assumption of density-dependence. This highlights the need to formulate better environmentally sensitive stock recruitment models. Under the current knowledge of Baltic sprat recruitment, the tested climate-change scenarios would result in a change in management targets. However, to serve as a quantitative management advice tool, models will have to address the above-mentioned concerns.