Has the fishery contributed to a major shift in the distribution of South African sardine?

A major shift in the distribution of South African sardine (Sardinops sagax) has resulted in a significant spatial mismatch in fishing effort vs. fish abundance in recent years. The sardine fishery started on the west coast during the 1940s, and processing capacity there increased rapidly. This trend together with increases in annual landings continued up to the early 1960s, but then the fishery collapsed as a consequence of over fishing. The population then recovered steadily during the 1980s and 1990s, coincident with, but perhaps not entirely attributable to, the inception of conservative management practices, to support catches similar to pre-collapse levels. Since 2001, however, most of the sardine population has been situated on South Africa's south coast, far from processing facilities. Fishing effort has increased concomitantly on that coast, particularly during the past three years, reflecting the continued decline in the abundance of sardine on the west coast. Three hypotheses explaining the change in the distribution of sardine have been proposed: (i) intensely localized (i. e. west coast) fishing pressure depleted that part (or functionally distinct unit) of the population; (ii) the shift was environmentally induced; and (iii) successful spawning and recruit survival on the south coast contributed disproportionately more towards the bulk of recruitment, and progeny spawned there now dominate the population and exhibit natal homing. The first of these hypotheses is evaluated, and management implications of the shift discussed.