期刊
HYDROLOGY RESEARCH
卷 40, 期 2-3, 页码 153-166出版社
IWA PUBLISHING
DOI: 10.2166/nh.2009.073
关键词
climate change; Lochnagar; modeling; mountain lakes; nitrate; water quality
资金
- Eurolimpacs [GOCE-CT-2003-505540]
- Scottish Executive Framework 3 Programme
- DEFRA
- Natural Environment Research Council [ceh010023, ceh010022] Funding Source: researchfish
The effect of changing climate and N deposition on montane ecosystems is a topic of considerable importance. Mountains are vulnerable environments and their ecosystems are often in a delicate balance. An application of the INCA-N model is presented to simulate current-day nitrate dynamics in a Scottish mountain lake and to project the possible future effects of climate change and reductions in N deposition on lake nitrate concentration ([NO3-]). The INCA-N model is calibrated using data from 1996-2006 in an attempt to determine the controls on [NO3-] in Lochnagar and process sensitivities to changing climate. Predictions were sensitive to hydrologic, vegetation-related and in-soil processes. Over the longer term, surface water [NO3-] in this mountain ecosystem is expected to increase. From 2020 to 2100, when N deposition is modelled at a constant rate, warmer temperature exerts a stronger effect on N losses to the lake surface than the N deposition. While the effects of a warming climate are projected to lead to increased surface water [NO3-], concentrations are not projected to either return to, or exceed, historical levels.
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