期刊
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
卷 63, 期 9, 页码 1368-1385出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2018.1511054
关键词
land-use change; climate change; water balance; impact assessment; Samin catchment; Indonesia
资金
- Directorate General of Higher Education, Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education of the Republic of Indonesia
Hydrological response to expected future changes in land use and climate in the Samin catchment (278 km(2)) in Java, Indonesia, was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. We analysed changes between the baseline period 1983-2005 and the future period 2030-2050 under both land-use change and climate change. We used the outputs of a bias-corrected regional climate model and six global climate models to include climate model uncertainty. The results show that land-use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual streamflow and surface runoff. The findings of this study will be useful for water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land-use and climate changes in the study catchment.
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