期刊
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
卷 60, 期 1, 页码 50-66出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2013.878462
关键词
flood control; decision support; northwest Mexico; climate change; hydrological modelling; water infrastructure
资金
- National Science Foundation [CBET-1014615]
- Directorate For Engineering [1014818] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Div Of Chem, Bioeng, Env, & Transp Sys [1014615] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990-2000) and future (2031-2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions. [GRAPHICS] Editor D. Koutsoyiannis
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