期刊
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
卷 25, 期 22, 页码 3437-3447出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8072
关键词
climate change; low flow; frequency analysis; SWAT; hydrologic model; water resources management
资金
- National Emergency Management Agency of Korea [NEMA-08-NH-05]
- Ministry of Environment, Korea [1700-1737-322-210-13]
- Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, Korea, through the National Research Foundation [2009-0093464]
- National Science Foundation [EPS-0814387]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2009-0093464] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
The climate sensitive analysis of potential climate change on streamflow has been conducted using a hydrologic model to identify hydrologic variability associated with climate scenarios as a function of perturbed climatic variables (e.g. carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation). The interannual variation of water resources availability as well as low flow frequency driven by monsoonal time shifts have been investigated to evaluate the likelihood of droughts in a changing climate. The results show that the timing shift of the monsoon window associated with future climate scenarios clearly affect annual water yield change of -12 and -8% corresponding to 1-month earlier and 1-month later monsoon windows, respectively. Also, a more severe low flow condition has been predicted at 0.03 m(3)/s as opposed to the historic 7Q10 flow of 1.54 m(3)/s given at extreme climate scenarios. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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