On seasonal approach to flood frequency modelling. Part I: Two-component distribution revisited

The annual peak flow series of the Polish rivers are mixtures of summer and winter flows. In the Part I of a sequence of two papers, theoretical aspects of applicability of seasonal approach to flood frequency analysis (FFA) in Poland are discussed. A testing procedure is introduced for the seasonal model and the data overall fitness. Conditions for objective comparative assessment of accuracy of annual maxima (AM) and seasonal maxima (SM) approaches to FFA are formulated and finally Gumbel (EV1) distribution is chosen as seasonal distribution for detailed investigation. Sampling properties of AM quantile x(F) estimates are analysed and compared for the SM and AM models for equal seasonal variances. For this purpose, four estimation methods were used, employing both asymptotic approach and sampling experiments. Superiority of the SM over AM approach is stated evident in the upper quantile range, particularly for the case of no seasonal variation in the parameters of Gumbel distribution. In order to learn whether the standard two- and three-parameter flood frequency distributions can be used to model the samples generated from the Two-Component Extreme Value 1 (TCEV1) distribution, the shape of TCEV1 probability density function (PDF) has been tested in terms of bi-modality. Then the use of upper quantile estimate obtained from the dominant season of extreme floods (DEFS) as AM upper quantile estimate is studied and respective systematic error is assessed. The second part of the paper deals with advantages and disadvantages of SM and AM approach when applied to real flow data of Polish rivers. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.