Low Serum Adiponectin Predicts 10-Year Risk of Type 2 Diabetes and HbA1c Independently of Obesity, Lipids, and Inflammation: Whitehall II Study

Our aim of the present work was to study the effect of serum adiponectin on incident diabetes and HbA1c values. We measured baseline serum adiponectin levels in a nested case-control selection (n = 140) of the Whitehall 11 Cohort. Participants (mean [SD] age 50.9 [6.3] years) had no prevalent diabetes or CHD at baseline. Cases (n=55) had incident diabetes according to an oral glucose tolerance test during follow-up (mean: 11.5 +/- 3.0 years). Adiponectin levels were lower among cases (9.3 mu g/ml, 3.2 [median; IQR] vs. 10.5; 3.6, p=0.01). The risk of incident diabetes decreased by 11% (p=0.03) for 1 mu g/ml higher adiponectin levels. Higher adiponectin levels were associated with lower HbA1c at follow-up (p<0.05). Both associations were stable to adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and serum lipids, and for the case of HbA1c, also for C-reactive protein (all p<0.05). The observed robust, prospective associations support that adiponectin is an independent predictor of diabetes and the degree of glycaemic impairment.