How well can we forecast high biomass algal bloom events in a eutrophic coastal sea?

High biomass algal bloom events are a characteristic of eutrophic coastal waters; these may result both in ecosystem degradation and economic loss. We present a skill evaluation of a coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem model of the NW European shelf for predicting bloom events based on a comparison with satellite chlorophyll estimates. By setting thresholds to define bloom events we use a binary classification system to generate maps showing the probability a model bloom prediction is correct. Model and satellite data limitations are discussed along with the application of this method to forecasting specific harmful algal species. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.