Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Complexity for complexity-How advanced modeling may limit its applicability for decision-makers

Ben J. M. Ale, David H. Slater

Summary: As engineering systems become more sophisticated, assessing the efficacy of safety-critical systems has become challenging. Traditional methods of failure analysis may not accurately represent the behavior of real systems. Therefore, the question of whether a simpler whole system model is necessary arises to better understand the behavior of real systems.

RISK ANALYSIS (2023)

Article Business

The impacts of agricultural productivity on structural transformation, and poverty alleviation in Africa: evidence from Guinea-Bissau

Julio Vicente Cateia, Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt, Terciane Sabadini Carvalho, Luc Savard

Summary: This study examines the impact of improved agricultural productivity on structural transformation and poverty in Guinea-Bissau, using a CGE model. The findings suggest that improved agricultural productivity has a positive effect on economic growth, sectoral output, and household welfare, benefiting both rural and urban poor.

JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS (2023)

Article Business

Best practices, performance advantage and trade-offs: new insights from frontier analysis

Rui Sousa, Ana S. Camanho, Maria Conceicao Silva, Giovani J. C. da Silveira, Behrouz Arabi

Summary: This study examines the role of best practices in generating firm's performance advantage by integrating resource-based theory with the practice-based view. The findings indicate that best practices can serve as a source of enduring competitive advantage and provide new insights and guidance.

JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Application of Sampling Variance Smoothing Methods for Small Area Proportion Estimation

Yong You, Mike Hidiroglou

Summary: In this article, we propose sampling variance smoothing methods for small area proportion estimation. The results from real data analysis and simulation study indicate that the proposed sampling variance smoothing methods perform very well for small area estimation.

JOURNAL OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS (2023)

Article Business

The contribution of industrial robots to labor productivity growth and economic convergence: a production frontier approach

Andreas Eder, Wolfgang Koller, Bernhard Mahlberg

Summary: This study investigates the contribution of industrial robots to labor productivity growth and cross-country economic convergence. The findings reveal that industrial robots have a positive impact on labor productivity growth in all the countries studied. The contribution of robot capital deepening to productivity growth has become more important in the post-financial crisis period. There is evidence of a reduction in the dispersion of productivity levels across economies during the period of 1999 to 2019, as well as a shift towards a more unimodal distribution in the labor productivity. Traditional physical capital accumulation and technological change are also significant drivers of productivity growth.

JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Small Area Estimates of Poverty Incidence in Costa Rica under a Structure Preserving Estimation (SPREE) Approach

Alejandra Arias-Salazar

Summary: Obtaining reliable estimates in small areas is challenging due to the coverage and periodicity of data collection. This article proposes a new method that combines the attributes of the most recent structure-preserving estimation methods to estimate and update cross-classified counts in small domains when the variable of interest is not available in the census.

JOURNAL OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Block Weighted Least Squares Estimation for Nonlinear Cost-based Split Questionnaire Design

Yang Li, Le Qi, Yichen Qin, Cunjie Lin, Yuhong Yang

Summary: In this study, a two-stage framework is proposed to handle issues in surveys with long questionnaires. The first stage utilizes a split questionnaire design to minimize costs and ensure reliable estimates of means. The second stage involves a block weighted least squares estimator for linear regression coefficients. Numerical studies show that this method outperforms existing alternatives in terms of prediction and estimation accuracy.

JOURNAL OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Answering Current Challenges of and Changes in Producing Official Time Use Statistics Using the Data Collection Platform MOTUS

Joeri Minnen, Sven Rymenants, Ignace Glorieux, Theun Pieter van Tienoven

Summary: This article introduces the Modular Online Time Use Survey (MOTUS) data collection platform, which accommodates the challenges faced by the modernization of official statistics production and provides a methodology for TUS production, supporting a shift in the methodological paradigm of conducting TUS.

JOURNAL OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS (2023)

Article Economics

Interfuel Substitution and Inflation Dynamics in India

Anirban Sengupta, Apostolos Serletis, Libo Xu

Summary: This paper investigates the demand for energy and interfuel substitution in India at the sectoral level using neoclassical microeconomic theory. The findings suggest that there is limited ability to substitute between major energy commodities in the household and power sectors, but significant substitution relationships exist in the industrial and transportation sectors. The paper also discusses the implications of energy price shocks on inflation and inflation targeting strategies by the central bank.

STUDIES IN NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND ECONOMETRICS (2023)

Article Economics

Volatility Forecasting Using Quasi-Score-Driven Models with an Application to the Coronavirus Pandemic Period

Astrid Ayala, Szabolcs Blazsek, Adrian Licht

Summary: This study examines the statistical and volatility forecasting performances of recent quasi-score-driven EGARCH models and finds that they outperform other models in both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The study provides evidence in favor of the quasi-score-driven EGARCH model for the past two decades and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

STUDIES IN NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND ECONOMETRICS (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Temporally Consistent Present Population from Mobile Network Signaling Data for Official Statistics

Milena Suarez Castillo, Francois Semecurbe, Cezary Ziemlicki, Haixuan Xavier Tao, Tom Seimandi

Summary: This article proposes a methodology to estimate the hourly population presence over France consistently over several months based on spatially merged fine-grained official population counts and signaling data. The article highlights the importance of consistency at different spatial scales and over time, as well as spatial mapping reflecting accuracy. The challenges and potential of data fusion approaches for future methodologies are also discussed.

JOURNAL OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Small Area with Multiply Imputed Survey Data

Marina Runge, Timo Schmid

Summary: In this article, a framework for small area estimation with multiply imputed survey data is proposed. The framework extends the transformed Fay-Herriot model to account for the additional uncertainty from multiple imputation and provides point and mean squared error estimators. Comprehensive simulations demonstrate the reliability and precision of the proposed methodology.

JOURNAL OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS (2023)

Article Economics

Business-cycle consumption risk and asset prices

Federico M. Bandi, Andrea Tamoni

Summary: Aggregation is commonly used in asset pricing to capture frequency-specific effects. This study formalizes the theoretical mapping between aggregates of time series and their frequency-specific components, and demonstrates the valuable pricing signal provided by business-cycle consumption.

JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Investment disputes and their explicit role in option market uncertainty and overall risk instability

Zdenek Drabek, Milos Kopa, Matus Maciak, Michal Pesta, Sebastiano Vitali

Summary: We propose a methodological approach for analyzing the impacts of investment disputes on option markets. The implied volatility of options reflects the unspecified uncertainty and additional risk brought about by these disputes. We introduce artificial options with constant maturity to emphasize these effects and use a panel data representation of artificial implied volatility smiles to ensure flexibility and transparency of the model.

COMPUTATIONAL MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

A sustainable dynamic closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium for collectibles markets

Georgia Fargetta, Laura R. M. Scrimali

Summary: In this paper, a sustainable closed-loop supply chain equilibrium problem is discussed in the context of collectible items and a time-dependent framework. The network under consideration comprises of manufacturers, retailers, demand markets, and an online second-hand platform with both forward and reverse logistics competition. The research analyzes the optimal behaviors of decision-makers and provides the necessary conditions for achieving equilibrium in the closed-loop supply chain network. Additionally, an associated evolutionary variational inequality and an infinite-dimensional projected dynamical system are introduced as tools to solve the problem, with a numerical example involving eBay as the online platform.

COMPUTATIONAL MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

A topological approach for vector quasi-variational inequalities with set-valued functions

Sonia, Ratna Dev Sarma

Summary: This paper utilizes a new topological condition based on admissibility of the function space topology to establish existence results for a generalized vector quasi-variational inequality problem and its stronger form. The existence results are proved without relying on monotonicity or convexity assumptions on the functions. Additionally, the solution sets of the inequality problems are demonstrated to be closed and compact.

COMPUTATIONAL MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

A bilevel approach to ESG multi-portfolio selection

Francesco Cesarone, Lorenzo Lampariello, Davide Merolla, Jacopo Maria Ricci, Simone Sagratella, Valerio Giuseppe Sasso

Summary: In this paper, we investigate the problem faced by financial service providers in incentivizing account holders to construct ESG-oriented portfolios. By using bilevel programming, we propose a novel algorithm that can optimize the overall ESG impact of the firm while satisfying the preferences of account owners and meeting stakeholders' demands and regulatory requirements. Theoretical analysis and numerical testing on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach even for large-scale problems.

COMPUTATIONAL MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Robust selective maintenance optimization of series-parallel mission-critical systems subject to maintenance quality uncertainty

Hamzea Al-Jabouri, Ahmed Saif, Claver Diallo

Summary: This paper examines the optimization of joint selective maintenance and repairperson assignment problem in the presence of uncertain maintenance quality. The uncertainty of maintenance actions arises from various factors, including the expertise of repairpersons, maintenance methods and tools, and variation in the operating environment. A robust optimization framework is used to capture the maintenance quality uncertainty through non-symmetric budget uncertainty sets. Both nominal and robust problems are formulated as mixed-integer exponential conic programs, which can be solved using existing solvers. Extensive numerical experiments on benchmark instances demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed reformulations and the importance of considering maintenance quality uncertainty in selective maintenance planning.

COMPUTATIONAL MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Minimum capital requirement and portfolio allocation for non-life insurance: a semiparametric model with Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraint

Alessandro Staino, Emilio Russo, Massimo Costabile, Arturo Leccadito

Summary: We propose an optimization problem to determine the minimum capital requirement for a non-life insurance company, with a focus on the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and portfolio performance constraint. We demonstrate the convexity of the optimization problem for any integrable random variable representing the insurer's liability. We also show that the CVaR constraint is continuously differentiable when the liability has a continuous distribution. The empirical analysis reveals the significant impact of the liability distribution on capital requirements and optimal portfolios.

COMPUTATIONAL MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (2023)

Article Economics

Some impossibility results for inference with cluster dependence with large clusters

Denis Kojevnikov, Kyungchul Song

Summary: This paper focuses on observations with a cluster dependence structure and presents two main impossibility results. The first result shows that it is not possible to consistently discriminate the mean when there is only one large cluster and no information about the dependence structure. The second result provides a necessary and sufficient condition for the cluster structure such that the long run variance is consistently estimable.

JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS (2023)