A global comparative analysis of elevational species richness patterns of ferns

Aim Elevational gradients offer an outstanding opportunity to assess factors determining patterns of species richness, but along single transects potential explanatory factors often covary, making it difficult to distinguish between competing hypotheses. Many previous studies on plants have interpreted their results as supporting the mid-domain effect (MDE) as a major determinant of species richness, even when climatic factors showed similarly high explanatory power. We compared fern species richness along 20 elevational transects to quantify the relative contribution of climate and MDE as drivers of elevational richness patterns. Location Twenty transects world-wide. Methods Ferns were sampled in 1039 plots of 400-2500 m(2) each. Mean annual precipitation and temperature, epiphytic bryophyte cover (as a proxy for air humidity) and MDE predictions were included as independent variables. For each transect, we calculated multiple linear models and partitioned the variance to assess the relative contribution of the independent variables, selecting the most parsimonious models based on Akaike weights and multi-model inference. Results Along most individual gradients, nearly all variance of fern species richness that could be attributed to either space or MDEs was collinear with climatic factors. Yet, the comparison across transects showed that elevational richness patterns are most parsimoniously accounted for by climatic conditions, especially by low water availability at low elevations and in dry regions in general, and by low temperatures at high elevations and in extra-tropical regions. Main conclusions Fern species richness is most closely related to climatic factors, and while MDE, surface area and metapopulation processes may somewhat modify the patterns, their importance has been overstated in the past. Future research challenges include determining whether the richness-climate relationship reflects: (1) a direct relationship through the physiological tolerance of the plants, (2) an indirect influence of climate on ecosystem productivity, or (3) an evolutionary legacy of longer or faster diversification processes under certain climatic conditions.