El Nino and dry season rainfall influence hostplant phenology and an annual butterfly migration from Neotropical wet to dry forests

We censused butterflies flying across the Panama Canal at Barro Colorado Island (BCI) for 16 years and butterfly hostplants for 8 years to address the question: What environmental factors influence the timing and magnitude of migrating Aphrissa statira butterflies? The peak migration date was earlier when the wet season began earlier and when soil moisture content in the dry season preceding the migration was higher. The peak migration date was also positively associated with peak leaf flushing of one hostplant (Callichlamys latifolia) but not another (Xylophragma seemannianum). The quantity of migrants was correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which influenced April soil moisture on BCI and total rainfall in the dry season. Both hostplant species responded to El Nino with greater leaf flushing, and the number of adults deriving from or laying eggs on those new leaves was greatest during El Nino years. The year 1993 was exceptional in that the number of butterflies migrating was lower than predicted by the El Nino event, yet the dry season was unusually wet for an El Nino year as well. Thus, dry season rainfall appears to be a primary driver of larval food production and population outbreaks for A. statira. Understanding how global climate cycles and local weather influence tropical insect migrations improves the predictability of ecological effects of climate change.