Climate change and livestock parasites: integrated management of sheep blowfly strike in a warmer environment

The incidence of parasite-mediated livestock disease is the result of a complex interaction of factors such as parasite and host abundance, host susceptibility, climate and, critically, farmer husbandry and intervention strategies, all of which change seasonally in space and time. Given the complexity of the interacting factors, the effects of environment changes on disease incidence are hard to predict, as accordingly are the optimal husbandry responses required to ameliorate any effects. Here a model system is used to explore these issues. Cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) is common disease of livestock and would be expected to be highly sensitive to even small changes in climate; it provides a good model for highlighting the problems inherent in attempting to predict the effect of climate change on livestock disease incidence. For this, a stochastic simulation model is used to examine the changes in the seasonal incidence of ovine cutaneous myiasis on farms in the United Kingdom and the likely effects of changes in husbandry and control strategies. The simulations show that the range of elevated temperatures predicted by current climate change scenarios result in an elongated blowfly season with earlier spring emergence and a higher cumulative incidence of strike. Overall, higher temperatures increased strike incidence disproportionately in ewes in early summer, but had relatively less direct effect on the pattern of lamb strike incidence; a +3 degrees C increase in average temperature approximately doubles the cumulative incidence of strike in lambs but results in four times more strikes in ewes. A range of strike management options is examined and the models show that changes in husbandry practices are also likely to have an important effect in reducing early season ewe strike incidences. The simulations suggest that integrated changes in husbandry practices are likely to be able to manage expected increases in strike, given the range of climate changes currently predicted.