N:P:Si nutrient export ratios and ecological consequences in coastal seas evaluated by the ICEP approach

The Indicator for Coastal Eutrophication Potential (ICEP) for river nutrient export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica at the global scale was first calculated from available measurement data. Positive values of ICEP indicate an excess of nitrogen and phosphorus over silica and generally coincide with eutrophication. The sign of ICEP based on measured nutrient fluxes was in good agreement with the corresponding one calculated from the Global-NEWS models for more than 5000 watersheds in the world. Calculated ICEP for the year 2050 based on Global NEWS data for the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios show increasing values particularly in developing countries. For further evaluation of the ICEP at the outlet of the rivers of the world based on measurements, there is a need for additional determination silica fluxes and concentrations, which are scarcely documented.