Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 41, Issue 9, Pages 3081-3088Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059539
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- Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri-Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC)
- DPC
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From 2006 to spring 2013, Campi Flegrei (CF) caldera, Italy, was mostly uplifting at an increasing rate, particularly high from 2011. We show that the 2011-2013 accelerated uplift and 1980-2010 inflation and deflation phases can be explained by a two-source conceptual model similar to that proposed by Amoruso et al. (2014) (reference model). However, pressurization of the sole thin quasi-horizontal similar to 4000 m deep source, responsible for large-scale 1980-2010 deformation, can explain the whole 2011-2013 deformation, while activity of the shallower Solfatara hydrothermal source, responsible for residual 1980-2010 deformation, appears constant. These results suggest a predominantly magmatic unrest in 2011-2013. Near-real-time comparison of observations and reference model predictions can provide additional information for short-term eruption forecasting at CF; a similar approach could be followed also in other volcanic environments.
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