Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 41, Issue 14, Pages 5192-5199Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061062
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Funding
- Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI program)
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan [26281013, 26247079]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [22106005, 26281013, 26247079] Funding Source: KAKEN
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Anomalously high summertime temperatures have occurred with increasing frequency since the late 20th century. It is not clear why hot summers are becoming more frequent despite the recent slowdown in the rise in global surface air temperature. To examine factors affecting the historical variation in the frequency of hot summers over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), we conducted three sets of ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model. The model accurately reproduced interannual variation and long-term increase in the occurrence of hot summers. Decadal variabilities in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans accounted for 43 +/- 27% of the recent increase over the NH middle latitudes. In addition, direct influence of anthropogenic forcing also contributes to increasing the frequency since the late 20th century. The results suggest that the heat extremes can become more frequent in the coming decade even with the persistent slowdown in the global-mean surface warming.
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