Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 40, Issue 20, Pages 5497-5502Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057877
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Funding
- 973 Program [2010CB950400]
- NSFC [41030961]
- CAS [XDA5090403]
- NSF [ATM 1034798]
- NOAA [NA10OAR4310200]
- DOE [DESC0005110]
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The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971-2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012-2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.
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