Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 40, Issue 10, Pages 2411-2416Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50454
Keywords
predictability; regimes; jets
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Funding
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Weather directorate, a collaborative center of the Natural Environment Research Council
- Natural Environment Research Council [ncas10003] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [ncas10003] Funding Source: UKRI
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The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split, it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that, as the jet weakens or splits, it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor.
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