Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 37, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL041869
Keywords
-
Categories
Funding
- CNRS-INSU
- GENCI-CINES/IDRIS [2009-042122]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Earth's magnetic field is currently decreasing, reducing the protection it offers against charged particles coming from space and increasing space weather hazards within the near-Earth environment. Modeling the future evolution of the field is thus of considerable interest. But how far in the future this can conceivably be done is still an open question. Here we report on the first systematic investigation of the limit of predictability of fully consistent 3D numerical dynamo simulations, and suggest that the Earth's dynamo is likely unpredictable beyond a century, making decade timescale forecasts of the main magnetic field conceivable, but rendering longer-term predictions, such as the timing of the next reversal, totally unpredictable. Citation: Hulot, G., F. Lhuillier, and J. Aubert (2010), Earth's dynamo limit of predictability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06305, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041869.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available