On the importance of the forward speed of hurricanes in storm surge forecasting: A numerical study

A systematic investigation of storm surge along the coast of Louisiana was conducted by using the fully nonlinear Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model. FVCOM was first applied to Hurricane Rita and validated by in situ measurements. Experiments were conducted with different parameters to evaluate the impacts of each factor on inundation over a wide and shallow shelf. Results show that a hurricane's forward speed is a significant parameter which has been overlooked in previous studies. Resonance may occur for certain hurricane forward motion speeds: increasing this speed increases peak surge heights while decreasing inland volume of flood. The effects of wind intensity, Radius of Maximum Winds, tidal timing, amplitude, and wind inflow angle were also examined. It was concluded that varying a storm's forward motion may account for variations in flooded volumes equivalent to an upgrade or downgrade of about 1 category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Citation: Rego, J. L., and C. Li (2009), On the importance of the forward speed of hurricanes in storm surge forecasting: A numerical study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07609, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036953.