Ground deformation at calderas driven by fluid injection: modelling unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

Campi Flegrei collapse caldera (Italy) is a high-risk volcanic area located close to Naples and includes part of the densely populated city. This area is characterised by large up and down ground displacements. The last large uplift episode caused 3.5 m of cumulative vertical displacement at the centre of the town of Pozzuoli, during the period 1969-1984. Up and down ground movements in this area often occur without intercurring eruptions and are similar to what is observed at other calderas worldwide. Here, however, they appear more evident and amplified. Understanding the mechanism of such movements is crucial for hazard assessment and eruption forecast, mainly due to this densely populated area. This paper presents a detailed model for ground displacements due to deep fluid injection in shallower layers. Such a model explains in a natural way the occurrence of uplift and subsidence without eruptions. We show that it is possible to fit observed ground deformation in this area with a thermofluid dynamical model. The model obtained is also consistent with other observations like microgravity changes, changes in CO2 flux, etc. Here, we suggest that significant uplift and subsidence at calderas can be due to effects of deep fluid injections other than magma. At Campi Flegrei, however, a partial magmatic contribution at the origin of the observed episodes cannot be excluded.