Journal
FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS
Volume 161, Issue 11, Pages 1530-1542Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.fss.2009.12.002
Keywords
Fuzzy numbers; Simulation; System dynamics; Supply chain; Bullwhip effect
Funding
- Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology [DPI2007-65501]
- Universidad Politecnica de Valencia [PAID-05-08/3720]
- Generalitat Valenciana [GVA/ACOMP/2009/169]
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In this paper, we evaluate the behavior of fuzzy estimations of demand instead of demand forecasts based on exponential smoothing in a two-stage, single-item, multi-period supply chain. A system dynamics model with fuzzy estimations of demand has been constructed for supply chain simulation. Fuzzy numbers are used to model fuzzy demand estimations. With a numerical example, we show that the bullwhip effect and the amplification of the inventory variance (NSamp) can be effectively reduced. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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