The importance of seasonal flow timing for riparian vegetation dynamics: a systematic review using causal criteria analysis

1. Whilst it is widely recognised that a natural flow regime is important for sustaining riverine ecosystems, the relative importance of the various components of flow regime for riparian vegetation dynamics is poorly understood. We sought to determine the current extent of knowledge on the importance of seasonal flow timing for riparian plants by conducting a systematic review of the literature using causal criteria analysis. 2. Using a definition of ` riparian' that included riverine, wetland and floodplain systems, we found sufficient evidence to provide strong support for the existence of causal relations between seasonal flow timing and a number of riparian plant processes, namely rates of waterborne dispersal (hydrochory), germination and growth, as well as riparian community composition. There was insufficient evidence to infer a causal relationship between flow timing and the reproduction or survival of riparian plants. 3. Thus, we argue that seasonal flow timing is important for many of the processes that generate and sustain riparian vegetation communities. River regulation, and / or flow management aimed at restoring ecological values, should consider flow timing and its implication for riparian flora. Because of regulation, many of the rivers of south-eastern Australia have inverted seasonal flow patterns. Whilst direct evidence of the effects of this inversion on the flora of these rivers is lacking, the results of our causal analysis allow us to predict how these plant communities may have been affected. 4. However, these predictions must be treated with caution because of the reliance of some of the causal analyses on wetland studies. For riverine flora, further research is particularly needed on the effects of seasonal flow timing on hydrochory, survival and reproduction. 5. Causal criteria analysis provides a defensible and efficient means for assessing the extent of evidence for or against ecological hypotheses of this kind. In this case, systematic review of the literature provided strong evidence to support a number of causal links between seasonal flow timing and riparian vegetation dynamics, whilst also efficiently identifying knowledge gaps.