Dothistroma septosporum: spore production and weather conditions

Dothistroma septosporum, the causal agent of Dothistroma needle blight is a widespread fungus which infects more than 80 species of coniferous trees through the entire world. Spreading of the infection is strongly affected by climatic factors of each locality where it is recorded. We attempt to describe the concrete limiting climatic factors necessary for the releasing of conidia of D. septosporum and to find out the timing of its spore production within the year. For this purpose we used an automatic volumetric spore trap and an automatic meteorological station. We found that a minimum daily average temperature of 10 C was necessary for any spore production, as well as a long period of high air humidity. The values obtained in the present study were a little bit higher than those previously published, which may arise questions about a possible changing trend of the behaviour in the development of the Dothistroma needle blight causal agent. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict the spore counts on the base of previous values of spore counts and dew point. For a locality from Hackerovka, the best ARIMA model was 1,0,0; and for a locality from Lanzhot, the best was 3,1,0.