Journal
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
Volume 41, Issue 17, Pages 7837-7846Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2014.06.029
Keywords
Safety management; The ISM Code; Bayesian networks; Safety indicators; Maritime traffic safety; Expert elicitation
Categories
Funding
- European Union - European Regional Development Fund Regional Council of Paijat-Hame
- City of Kotka
- Kotka-Hamina regional development company Cursor Ltd.
- Kotka Maritime Research Association Merikotka
- Kotka Maritime Research Centre Corporate Group: Port of HaminaKotka
- Kotka Maritime Research Centre Corporate Group: Port of Helsinki
- Kotka Maritime Research Centre Corporate Group: Aker Arctic Technology Inc.
- Kotka Maritime Research Centre Corporate Group: Arctia Shipping Ltd.
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This paper presents a model of maritime safety management and its subareas. Furthermore, the paper links the safety management to the maritime traffic safety indicated by accident involvement, incidents reported by Vessel Traffic Service and the results from Port State Control inspections. Bayesian belief networks are applied as the modeling technique and the model parameters are based on expert elicitation and learning from historical data. The results from this new application domain of a Bayesian network based expert system suggest that, although several its subareas are functioning properly, the current status of the safety management on vessels navigating in the Finnish waters has room for improvement; the probability of zero poor safety management subareas is only 0.13. Furthermore, according to the model a good IT system for the safety management is the strongest safety-management related signal of an adequate overall safety management level. If no deficiencies have been discovered during a Port State Control inspection, the adequacy of the safety management is almost twice as probable as without knowledge on the inspection history. The resulted model could be applied to performing several safety management related queries and it thus provides support for maritime safety related decision making. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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