Journal
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
Volume 38, Issue 9, Pages 11280-11285Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.02.176
Keywords
Wind farm power; Prediction; Wavelet decomposition; Weighted one-rank local-region method; GM (1,1) model
Categories
Funding
- National Basic Research Program (973 Program) [2007CB210304]
- China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [20090460273]
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In this paper, a prediction model is proposed for wind farm power forecasting by combining the wavelet transform, chaotic time series and GM (1,1) method. The wavelet transform is used to decompose wind farm power into several detail parts associated with high frequencies and an approximate part associated with low frequencies. The characteristic of each high frequencies signal is identified, if it is chaotic time series then use weighted one-rank local-region method to predict it. If not, use GM (1, 1) model to predict it. And the GM (1, 1) model is also used to predict the approximate part of the low frequencies. In the end, the final forecasted result for wind farm power is obtained by summing the predicted results of all extracted high frequencies and the approximate part. According to the predicted results, the proposed method can improve the prediction accuracy of the wind farm power. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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