Journal
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF HYPERTENSION
Volume 9, Issue 9, Pages 690-696Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.jash.2015.06.013
Keywords
Hypertension; statistics
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Funding
- George Family Foundation grant
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Elevated blood pressure (BP) is associated with greater risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and evidence suggests that prior BP levels may be at least as important as current BP in prediction models. We analyzed the determinants of CVD risk in Offspring Framingham Heart Study participants (n=3344). The baseline Cox model included the traditional risk factors and current systolic BP to predict 20-year risk of CVD (643 events). Current systolic BP was significant, and the associated hazard ratio was 1.09 for 10 mm Hg (confidence interval [CI] 95%: 1.04-1.15). A second model used the traditional risk factors plus antecedent BP (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.19; CI 95%: 1.10-1.24). In a third model that included traditional risk factors and both current and antecedent BP, the antecedent BP was significant (HR = 1.18; CI 95%: 1.08-1.23), but the current BP was not statistically significant (BR = 1.01; CI 95%: 0.97-1.09). Antecedent BP showed a significantly stronger effect on risk of CVD than current BP. (C) 2015 American Society of Hypertension. All rights reserved.
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