Adaptive accuracy of temperature oviposition preferences in newts

Oviposition-site choice has profound fitness consequences for both a mother and her offspring. The adaptive significance of oviposition behaviour for both generations depends on two rarely considered assumptions: (1) the fit of maternal oviposition preferences with local phenotypic optimum (adaptive accuracy) and (2) the predictability of future conditions for developing offspring based on conditions at the time of oviposition. We examined both assumptions using temperature oviposition preferences (T (p,o)) previously measured under laboratory conditions in the alpine newt, Ichthyosaura (formerly Triturus) alpestris. Analyses of temperature time series in the newt natural environment revealed, in agreement with oviposition-site choice of female newts, that T (p,o) were closer to phenotypic optima at the water surface than at the maximal depth (bottom). Temperature time series in both depths contained a high proportion of predictable variation, though bottom thermal conditions were more predictable than those at the water surface. We concluded that female newts have to trade the adaptive accuracy of T (p,o) for the predictability of future thermal conditions at the time of oviposition.