Journal
EUROPEAN REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Volume 38, Issue 4, Pages 529-551Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbq047
Keywords
foot and mouth disease; dynamic programming; supply; trade ban; risk
Categories
Funding
- Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
- National Emergency Supply Agency
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We use a stochastic dynamic programming model to simulate the market implications of alternative foot and mouth disease scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. The model considers the dynamics of animal stock adjustment and price movements when the duration of export disruptions is unknown. Explicit treatment of these issues is crucial in the economic analysis of livestock epidemics, especially if there is a risk of a prolonged export ban. Results suggest that the risk of a prolonged ban increases disease losses considerably. It also increases economic benefits from production adjustments.
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