Pulmonary function measures predict mortality differently in IPF versus combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema

The composite physiologic index (CPI) was derived to represent the extent of fibrosis on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT), adjusting for emphysema in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We hypothesised that longitudinal change in CPI would better predict mortality than forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) or diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DL,CO) in all patients with IPF, and especially in those with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE). Cox proportional hazard models were performed on pulmonary function data from IPF patients at baseline (n=321), 6 months (n=211) and 12 months (n=144). Presence of CPFE was determined by HRCT. A five-point increase in CPI over 12 months predicted subsequent mortality (HR 2.1, p=0.004). At 12 months, a 10% relative decline in FVC, a 15% relative decline in DL, CO or an absolute increase in CPI of five points all discriminated median survival by 2.1 to 2.2 yrs versus patients with lesser change. Half our cohort had CPFE. In patients with moderate/severe emphysema, only a 10% decline in FEV1 predicted mortality (HR 3.7, p=0.046). In IPF, a five-point increase in CPI over 12 months predicts mortality similarly to relative declines of 10% in FVC or 15% in DL, CO. For CPFE patients, change in FEV1 was the best predictor of mortality.