Supersymmetry in light of 1/fb of LHC data

We update previous frequentist analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1 parameter spaces to include the public results of searches for supersymmetric signals using similar to 1/fb of LHC data recorded by ATLAS and CMS and similar to 0.3/fb of data recorded by LHCb in addition to electroweak precision and B-physics observables. We also include the constraints imposed by the cosmological dark matter density and the XENON100 search for spin-independent dark matter scattering. The LHC data set includes ATLAS and CMS searches for jets + (sic)(T) events and for the heavier MSSM Higgs bosons, and the upper limits on BR(Bs -> mu(+)mu(-)) from LHCb and CMS. The absences of jets + (sic)(T) signals in the LHC data favour heavier mass spectra than in our previous analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1, which may be reconciled with (g - 2) (mu) if tan beta similar to 40, a possibility that is, however, under pressure from heavy Higgs searches and the upper limits on BR(B-s -> mu(+)mu(-)). As a result, the p-value for the CMSSM fit is reduced to similar to 15(38)%, and that for the NUHM1 to similar to 16(38)%, to be compared with similar to 9(49)% for the Standard Model limit of the CMSSM for the same set of observables (dropping (g - 2)(mu)), ignoring the dark matter relic density. We discuss the sensitivities of the fits to the (g - 2)(mu) and BR(b -> s gamma) constraints, contrasting fits with and without the (g - 2)(mu) constraint, and combining the theoretical and experimental errors for BR(b -> s gamma) linearly or in quadrature. We present predictions for m((g) over tilde), BR(B-s -> mu(+)mu(-)), M-h and MA, and update predictions for spin-independent dark matter scattering, incorporating the uncertainty in the p-nucleon sigma term Sigma(pi N).