Journal
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
Volume 219, Issue 3, Pages 762-772Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.01.009
Keywords
OR in societal problem analysis; Visions; Normative scenarios; Multiple criteria analysis; OR in energy
Funding
- Competence Centre for Environment and Sustainability at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
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Stakeholders and decision makers often develop visions of the ideal-type future as a response to complex societal problems and design their actions accordingly. However, these actors sometimes have a limited understanding as to whether their visions are feasible, what action is required and what the potential consequences are. This paper presents a methodology for linking visions with quantitative resource allocation scenarios which show different options in implementing the visions. The consequences are then appraised by multi-criteria assessment in order to find optimal and acceptable ways of implementation. As a result, stakeholders and decision makers learn about their visions and may even rethink them before decision making. The methodology thus couples visionary ideas with analytical information, providing a novel approach using quantitative techniques in a soft framework. The methodology is illustrated via a real-world case study concerning the future energy system in a small Swiss community. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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