Cardiovascular risk factors predict survival in middle-aged men during 50 years

Objectives: We aimed at studying the expectancy of life in middle-aged men as a function of several personal characteristics and risk factors. Material and methods: A sample of 1712 Italian men aged 40-59, first examined in 1960, was followed-up for mortality for 50 years. The length of survival was estimated as a function of 48 personal characteristics and risk factors using the multiple linear regression. Results: In 50 years 1672 men died (97.7%) and 40 survived (2.3%). Twenty risk factors, most of which were never measured in previous studies of such duration, proved to be significant, for the estimation of survival with an overall adjusted R-2 of 0.3236. They were: age, 4 anthropometric measurements (body mass index, and its squared term, laterality-linearity index, shoulder/pelvis shape), mean blood pressure, father and mother history of premature (<65-year) death, marital status, arm circumference, 2 respiratory measurements (vital capacity and forced expiratory volume), serum cholesterol, corneal arcus, xantelasma, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic bronchitis. Coefficients of 5 suitable risk factors became definitely larger after adjustment for regression dilution bias with 5 year data. All 40 cases of survival were located in the higher 5 deciles of estimated survival and 25 (62.5%) were in the upper decile. Conclusion: A small number of risk factors and personal characteristics, mainly known as cardiovascular risk factors and measured once in middle-aged men, are strongly associated with the length of survival in a 50-year follow-up. (C) 2012 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.