Factors affecting post-fire crown regeneration in cork oak (Quercus suber L.) trees

Cork oak (Quercus suber) forests are acknowledged for their biodiversity and economic (mainly cork production) values. Wildfires are one of the main threats contributing to cork oak decline in the Mediterranean Basin, and one major question that managers face after fire in cork oak stands is whether the burned trees should be coppiced or not. This decision can be based on the degree of expected crown regeneration assessed immediately after fire. In this study we carried out a post-fire assessment of the degree of crown recovery in 858 trees being exploited for cork production in southern Portugal, 1.5 years after a wildfire. Using logistic regression, we modelled good or poor crown recovery probability as a function of tree and stand variables. The main variables influencing the likelihood of good or poor crown regeneration were bark thickness, charring height, aspect and tree diameter. We also developed management models, including simpler but easier to measure variables, which had a lower predictive power but can be used to help managers to identify, immediately after fire, trees that will likely show good crown regeneration, and trees that will likely die or show poor regeneration (and thus, potential candidates for trunk coppicing).