Journal
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF CANCER
Volume 48, Issue 8, Pages 1176-1184Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2012.02.004
Keywords
Recurrent glioblastoma; Prognostic models; Predictive accuracy; Risk calculators
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Funding
- Novartis, Basel, Switzerland
- MSD/Merck & Co., North Wales, PA, USA
- Merck Serono, Darmstadt, Germany
- MDx Health, Bruxelles, Belgium
- Roche Pharma, Basel, Switzerland
- National Cancer Institute (Bethesda, Maryland, USA) [5U10 CA11488-29, 2U10 CA011488-41]
- 'Vlaamse Liga Tegen Kanker' from Belgium through the EORTC Charitable Trust
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Background: Prognostic models have been developed to predict survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma (GBM). To improve predictions, models should be updated with information at the recurrence. We performed a pooled analysis of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trials on recurrent glioblastoma to validate existing clinical prognostic factors, identify new markers, and derive new predictions for overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). Methods: Data from 300 patients with recurrent GBM recruited in eight phase I or II trials conducted by the EORTC Brain Tumour Group were used to evaluate patient's age, sex, World Health Organisation (WHO) performance status (PS), presence of neurological deficits, disease history, use of steroids or anti-epileptics and disease characteristics to predict PFS and OS. Prognostic calculators were developed in patients initially treated by chemoradiation with temozolomide. Results: Poor PS and more than one target lesion had a significant negative prognostic impact for both PFS and OS. Patients with large tumours measured by the maximum diameter of the largest lesion (>= 42 mm) and treated with steroids at baseline had shorter OS. Tumours with predominant frontal location had better survival. Age and sex did not show independent prognostic values for PFS or OS. Conclusions: This analysis confirms performance status but not age as a major prognostic factor for PFS and OS in recurrent GBM. Patients with multiple and large lesions have an increased risk of death. With these data prognostic calculators with confidence intervals for both medians and fixed time probabilities of survival were derived. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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