Journal
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
Volume 143, Issue 2, Pages 405-411Publisher
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268814001009
Keywords
China; hantavirus; HFRS; rodent; prevalence
Funding
- Chinese National Science and Technology Major Project [2013ZX10004202]
- Shaanxi Provincial Department of Science and Technology [2013K12-04-02, 2007K12-02(22)]
- National Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, China [2010CB530300, 2012CB955501, 2012AA12A407, 2013AA122003]
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The transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is deeply influenced by the reservoir and hantavirus prevalence rate. In this study, a surveillance on human HFRS cases, relative rodent abundance, and hantavirus infection prevalence was conducted in Shaanxi province, China, during 1984-2012. A generalized linear model with Poisson-distributed residuals and a log link was used to quantify the relationship between reservoir, virus and HFRS cases. The result indicated that there was a significant association of HFRS incidence with relative rodent density and the prevalence rate. This research provides evidence that the changes of infection prevalence in the reservoir could lead directly to the emergence of a new epidemic. It was concluded that the measurement of a number of these variables could be used in disease surveillance to give useful advance warning of potential disease epidemics.
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