The effect of ambient air temperature and precipitation on monthly counts of salmonellosis in four regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, in 2000-2010

We studied associations between monthly counts of laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis, ambient air temperature and precipitation in four settings in Kazakhstan. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature during the same months only in Astana: an increase of 1 degrees C was associated with a 5 center dot 5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2 center dot 2-8 center dot 8] increase in the number of cases. A similar association, although not reaching the level of significance was observed in the Southern Kazakhstan region (3 center dot 5%, 95% CI -2 center dot 1 to 9 center dot 1). Positive association with precipitation with lag 2 was found in Astana: an increase of 1mm was associated with a 0 center dot 5% (95% CI 0 center dot 1-1 center dot 0) increase in the number of cases. A similar association, but with lag 0 was observed in Southern Kazakhstan region (0 center dot 6%, 95% CI 0 center dot 1-1 center dot 1). The results may have implications for the future patterns of salmonellosis in Kazakhstan with regard to climate change.