Journal
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
Volume 137, Issue 8, Pages 1179-1187Publisher
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268809002052
Keywords
Basic reproduction number; global warming; mass action law; mathematical modelling; risk of dengue with temperature
Funding
- FAPESP (Politicas Publicas and Tematico)
- CNPq
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The incidence of dengue infection, a vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, shows clear dependence on seasonal variation. Based on the quantification method that furnishes the size of the A. aegypti population in terms of the estimated entomological parameters for different temperatures, we assessed the risk or dengue outbreaks. The persistence and severity of epidemics can be assessed by the basic reproduction number R(0), which varies with temperature. The expression for R(0) obtained from 'true' and 'pseudo' mass action laws for dengue infection is discussed.
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