A bivariate compound Poisson model for the occurrence of foreshock and aftershock sequences in Turkey

In this paper, a bivariate compound Poisson model is proposed and the probabilistic characteristics of this model, such as the joint probability function, covariance, and correlation coefficient are derived. Then, an algorithm is prepared in Oracle database to obtain the probabilities quickly. As an application, mainshocks with surface wave magnitudes M-s >= 5: 0, that occurred in Turkey between 1900 and 2009, their foreshock and aftershock sequences in the coordinates (39-42 degrees N) and (26-45 degrees E) are studied. The joint probability function, covariance, and correlation coefficient of total numbers of foreshock and aftershock sequences are obtained from the bivariate compound Poisson process using this data set. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.