Solar radiation synthetic series for power purchase agreements

The present paper proposes a methodology based on the implementation and assessment of autoregressive (AR) solar radiation models for generating synthetic series and providing guidance on bidding strategies for power purchase agreements. The work considered conventional and periodic AR models with different lag orders, assessing the models against real solar radiation measurements. The synthetic series generation process developed 1000 1-year monthly solar radiation scenarios that were later employed for simulating electric energy production and power purchase agreement models. This application allowed one to evaluate the risk associated with the energy supply security, supporting bidding strategies in energy auctions. A real study case is also illustrated in detail, referring to a spot in the Brazilian best irradiance area.

Automated summary

This paper proposes a methodology based on AR solar radiation models to generate synthetic series and provide guidance on bidding strategies for power purchase agreements. The models were assessed against real data and used to simulate scenarios for evaluating energy supply security and bidding strategies in energy auctions. A real study case in Brazil is also presented to illustrate the application of the methodology.