Quantifying Variability in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Inventories of Alternative Middle Distillate Transportation Fuels

The presence of variability in life cycle analysis (LCA) is inherent due to both inexact LCA procedures and variation of numerical inputs. Variability in LCA needs to be clearly distinguished from uncertainty. This paper uses specific examples from the production of diesel and jet fuels from 14 different feedstocks to demonstrate general trends in the types and magnitudes of variability present in life cycle greenhouse gas (LC-GHG) inventories of middle distillate fuels. Sources of variability have been categorized as pathway specific, coproduct usage and allocation, and land use change. The results of this research demonstrate that subjective choices such as coproduct usage and allocation methodology can be more important sources of variability in the LC-GHG inventory of a fuel option than the process and energy use of fuel production. Through the application of a consistent analysis methodology across all fuel options, the influence of these subjective biases is minimized, and the LC-GHG inventories for each feedstock-to-fuel option can be effectively compared and discussed. By considering the types and magnitudes of variability across multiple fuel pathways, it is evident that LCA results should be presented as a range instead of a point value. The policy implications of this are discussed.