How many will attend Paris? UNFCCC COP participation patterns 1995-2015

The annual Conferences of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have developed into enormous events. They attract a diverse range of environmental professionals and attendance figures have multiplied during recent years. We take a close look at the counts of attending delegates and use statistical methods in order to find some interesting patterns of participation growth. Among other things, this allows us to hypothesize that the upcoming 2015 event in Paris could be as large as the Copenhagen event was. After this, participation numbers are likely to either plateau at a high level or collapse altogether, depending on whether or not the international community reaches a new climate change deal. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.