Using AHP and Dempster-Shafer theory for evaluating sustainable transport solutions

In this paper, we present a hybrid approach based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory for evaluating the impact of environment-friendly transport measures like mode sharing, multi-modal transport solutions, intelligent transport solutions, etc. on city sustainability. The proposed approach is a mix of curiosity driven and client-driven research in the sense that the problem is guided by the client for practical applicability and the solution is motivated by technical or scientific contribution to research. The solution approach comprises multiple steps. In the first step, we identify the criteria for sustainability evaluation. AHP is used to structure and rate the criteria. In the second step, we test the transportation measure for sustainability and collect data from multiple information sources like human experts, questionnaire, sensors, models, etc on the selected criteria for evaluation purposes. The information from multiple data sources is combined using Dempster-Shafer theory. In the third step, we estimate the state of sustainability of the city using a Transport Sustainability Index (TSI). The Transport Sustainability Index is computed at two stages: pre- and post-test stages of the transportation measure. In the fourth step, we assess the impacts of the transportation measure on the city sustainability by observing the difference between the values at the pre- and the post-test stages. If an increase in the value of TSI is observed, then the impact of the transportation measure on city sustainability is judged as positive and it is recommended for adoption. We illustrate our approach by application on the transportation measure Carsharing. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.