Application of a Life Cycle Simulation Model to Evaluate Impacts of Water Management and Conservation Actions on an Endangered Population of Chinook Salmon

Fisheries and water resource managers are challenged to maintain stable or increasing populations of Chinook salmon in the face of increasing demand on the water resources and habitats that salmon depend on to complete their life cycle. Alternative management plans are often selected using professional opinion or piecemeal observations in place of integrated quantitative information that could reduce uncertainty in the effects of management plans on population dynamics. We developed a stochastic life cycle simulation model for an endangered population of winter-run Chinook salmon in the Sacramento River, California, USA with the goal of providing managers a tool for more effective decision making and demonstrating the utility of life cycle models for resource management. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the input parameters that influenced variation in salmon escapement were dependent on which age class was examined and their interactions with other inputs (egg mortality, Delta survival, ocean survival). Certain parameters (river migration survival, harvest) that were hypothesized to be important drivers of population dynamics were not identified in sensitivity analysis; however, there was a large amount of uncertainty in the value of these inputs and their error distributions. Thus, the model also was useful in identifying future research directions. Simulation of variation in environmental inputs indicated that escapement was significantly influenced by a 10% change in temperature whereas larger changes in other inputs would be required to influence escapement. The model presented provides an effective demonstration of the utility of life cycle simulation models for decision making and provides fisheries and water managers in the Sacramento system with a quantitative tool to compare the impact of different resource use scenarios.