Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential: An Assessment of Models and Methods for the Power Sector

The success of the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions requires that there are scientifically sound and usable measurement methods for the emission baseline. Three different methods are investigated in the context of China's electrical sector: simulation with dispatch analysis, decomposition analysis, and operating and build margin analysis. It is found that dispatch analysis is the best method available as it is able to consider important regional and temporal dimensions, while decomposition analysis can help quantify the potential effects of different energy and environment policy choices.