Journal
ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY
Volume 3, Issue 4, Pages 340-347Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
DOI: 10.1080/15567240701232162
Keywords
GARCH-in-mean; time-varying; wind speed; wind turbulence
Categories
Funding
- National Institute of Standards and Technology/Texas Tech University Cooperative Agreement Award [70NANB8H0059]
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Understanding the time series dynamics of wind speed is of importance to effective wind energy plant operations and businesses exposed to wind-related risk. This article examines the mean wind speed and wind turbulence using an ARMA-GARCH-in-mean framework for different wind energy markets. The methodology allows wind turbulence (i.e., conditional variance) to depend on the size of past wind gusts (i.e., shocks) in the series. The results have several implications for wind energy production. Our findings are summarized as follows: Mean wind speeds measured at different regional locations exhibit persistence and are highly dependent on immediate past wind speed values as well as past surprises in wind speed. However, there are differences in the relationship between wind turbulence and the mean wind speed across the different locations.
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