Journal
ENERGY POLICY
Volume 50, Issue -, Pages 154-160Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.059
Keywords
Energy consumption; Experience model; Energy intensity
Funding
- KDI School of Public Policy and Management
Ask authors/readers for more resources
A projection of future energy consumption is a vital input to many analyses of economic, energy, and environmental policies. We provide a benchmark projection which can be used to evaluate any other projection. Specifically, we base our projection of future energy consumption on its historical trend, which can be identified by an experience model. We compare our projection with forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for eight countries-U.S., China, India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico. We find that the EIA's projections are lower than ours in the case of China, the U.S., India, Japan, and Mexico. This indicates that for these five countries, the EIA uses assumptions which cannot be rationalized by historical data. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available